NOAA Issues 2019 Forecast

“The 2019 outlook calls for a 70% probability for each of the following ranges of activity:

  • 15-22 Named Storms
  • 8-13 Hurricanes
  • 4-8 Major Hurricanes
  • Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) range of 100%-180% of the median.”

First is zoooooomed in just for our region but second graphic is original showing Atlantic, and the East and Central Pacific Oceans.

Note:  I still do not see where the NHC/NOAA has given a forecast for 24 storms which has been circling since March.

Screenshot 2019-05-23 at 10.33.18 AM

Screenshot 2019-05-23 at 10.31.15 AM.png

So lets do a recap of the other agencies with the images … pretty wide margin of error.

Screenshot 2019-05-02 at 10.18.28 AM



Okay then. I guess we will see who was the most accurate at the end of the season because I got nothin’

Okay not entirely true. I’ve been ever so slooooowly working on a spreadsheet comparing forecasts and highlighting each year be ENSO. As many of my long time subscribers know, I have a theory about which one seems to effect us the most locally in Los Cabos.  Sadly, I have a day job and family so my time is limited, though they are the inspiration for eventually completing it. Last year … NOAA was the most accurate.

Screenshot 2019-05-23 at 11.42.03 AM

Oh, I know that big blobby thing looks scary but the winds are in our favor and the water is too cold still.

1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms along portions of the west
coast of Central America and the far eastern North Pacific are
associated with a broad area of low pressure. Earlier satellite wind
data indicated that the large circulation has moved inland over
Central America and the chance for development has decreased.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are likely to
continue over portions of Central America as this system remains
nearly stationary during the next few days. These rains could cause
flash flooding and mudslides in areas of mountainous terrain.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Latto/Brown

two_pac_5d0 (3)

As we get further into the season, recaps on storm prep will be updated and posted, for those that prefer not to go through the old posts.


Just Jenn

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