I know … I know … I’m the last one to bring her up with a good reason.
I’ve mentioned it so many times over the years that long-range computer models are all over the place and it either makes people panic or ignore something they shouldn’t. That being said, I know you’ve all seen talk of soon-to-be Kay going around, and I promised long ago I would not be a worry wart. For years people cancel their flights for nothing and locals are panic shopping and exhausting house prep, by the way (better to be prepared), and for eons, the professionals also often get it wrong and we get more wind and/or rain than we were told to expect and people are left feeling dispirited and develop trust issues with weather reports.
For example, looking at computer models from many sources, not just the trendy apps (I like those apps too), I’ve seen Invest 93E miss us as a small storm hitting mainland up the Sea of Cortez, missing us with a side swipe of the NE quadrant of the storm, head on direct hits, sometimes both of the more popular models agree, and several times riding the West coast of Baja all the way to San Diego (remnants off the coast near Los Angeles) and 50 scenarios in between.
Now that we at least have an official “invest number”, I feel more confident that it is officially time to talk about soon-to-be Kay.
I’m going to keep this blog as short as possible.
This is “almost Kay” now (the larger blob not the green dot closer to us which is where Javier got his name not his current location)
I’ll add a few GIF’s I hope will auto-update until the next update … so YOU can see actual real’ish time sat images. However, before I do, yes, I have personally begun preparing for a major storm with heavy rains. A storm does not need to hit us head-on to be an … issue.
WATER VAPOR
Infrared radiation (IR) works on SOME devices but this is the link https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/eep/13/GOES16-EEP-13-900×540.gif
I’ve been reading a lot of chatter in the socials that the girly named storms are the ones we need to worry about … so take that grain of salt for what it’s worth. Do not panic, just ready yourself if you didn’t already do so at the beginning of the season as I have talked about in so many blogs over the years.
I wish I had a crystal ball … I’m pretty sure the professionals do as well.
I will continue to update as “almost Kay” develops from here on out. Calmly. For my long-time subscribers, you know I will literally put up the “bat signal” when it starts to “get real” …
Before I close, remember at the beginning of the season when I blogged, “NOAA predicts a below-average season with 10-17 total named storms regardless of strength, 4-8 of those could become hurricanes, and 0-3 of those to possibly become major hurricanes.
Accuweather is forecasting a slightly more active season with 15-17 named events, 6-8 of those becoming hurricanes, and 2-4 of those may become major hurricanes.
Mexico put out an earlier forecast with more tropical storms than the other two.”
Well, we are on our 10th named system of the season. 3 have been Tropical Storms, 5 have been hurricanes below “major” status, and 2 of been “major” = cat 3 or higher which equals 7 hurricanes total regardless of strength to appear in the East Pacific Ocean.
It’s September … weather reporting is only in part a competition if there is monetary compensation. I do this for you. However, I do always like to keep track of who seems to be more accurate with their crystal balls.
Please refer to the NHC for all professional updates https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?epac
This blog is for entertainment purposes only.
If it interests you, I’m keeping tabs on the rain as we get it in this blog post: https://livecaboradio.blog/2022/08/29/2022-rainrate-for-cabo-as-we-get-rain/?fbclid=IwAR3Ek-DYdJRBpX2hUO6UlXFodk6MFIWeziHEH50Chlr0TmmnZ4l_A3EPRPc
xoxo
Jenn