THIS IS AN EDIT AT 8am Sept 2nd. The system affecting us NOW has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Javier which is located as of 3am 235 miles SSW from Cabo San Lucas with max wind speeds of 40mph with a “forward” movement of 10mph You can find the graphics here https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep1+shtml/084347.shtml?cone#contents END EDIT
Just a quick reminder, when I post weather blogs I almost always only post about Cabo San Lucas, not all of Los Cabos. Each area experienced the weather a bit differently or a lot differently.
I know many would prefer I just into the current weather forecasts but I feel it’s essential to do a teeny bit of educating first. I will try to stick to the basics.
Since we are waiting to see what the system about 300 miles South from Cabo San Lucas which is currently moving about 10mph in heading North-NorthWest will do, let’s start with what it was when I began writing this. It is a tropical disturbance with some thunderstorms that are becoming a bit better organized. As of 5am Pac Time, there was a 90% chance of it becoming either a Tropical Depression or even a Tropical Storm today or maybe even tonight’ish.
A Tropical Depression, in a nutshell, is kinda organized and has MAX sustained winds of 38 mph; this is two stages before a hurricane.
A Tropical Storm is a more organized system that has max sustained winds that vary from 39-73 mph; This is one stage before possibly becoming a hurricane.
This week’s weather will most likely never make it past either of the two above, but anything is possible. I will use a graph to further explain the different categories of actual hurricanes.
I chose the one without the air pressure, storm surge, etc.
This is random but my personal app preference not for accuracy but because it’s cute, is I often use Weather Kitty, and weather kitty says tomorrow I am to anticipate average winds of 22.48mph coming in from the East. So while I’d normally not need my hurricane shutters closed for a tropical storm, I do. My largest windows face the East and I know from experience I personally get stronger winds and gusts than the app says, and there are a lot of things that will be flying around. It’s how I lost the ONE window during Odile in 2014. A street sign in my neighborhood got us early, at 8’ish at night. UGH. Not the pole, just the street sign itself.
In this update, I am ONLY focusing on this week’s weather. It’s the one where a RED X “meets” the spot.
This system is expected to remain well offshore.
I know many aren’t a fan of Windy, and some swear by it but I did utilize a cropped screenshot to show the difference they are showing at this moment between the GFS and the Euro for potential Cabo San Luas wind and rain expectations. Please note, we could get less, we could get more, but I always anticipate higher gusts vs sustained winds at my home. Each part of our region experiences each storm a bit differently.
I don’t know about the other locals, but I can verify from my personal weather station it’s 86.7f, and I am currently experiencing gusts of about 15mph coming mostly from the East. It’s starting to get a little cloudy outside and may or may not sprinkle and drizzle soon on and off this afternoon in part from weather crossing the Sea of Cortez from the mainland, as Sat images show the system being monitored outer bands have not reached us … yet but are getting closer (if the GIF inserted below behaves, it will show current regardless of when you read this).
There is a GIF embedded below that is not showing on ALL devices showing the system so here is the link https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/eep/13/GOES16-EEP-13-900×540.gif
Depending on which website I go to, as far as rain is concerned, for the next 3 days we could see at little as enough to make your car look dirty, to 1-1/5″ and upwards to about 4″. We will all find out together. (group hug?? Those living further up on unpaved roads??)
I still urge you to take caution along the shore and pay attention to the flags, signs, and verbal warnings I mentioned the other day.
I may not update again today, at least on this blog site. it depends if and/or how much changes with this system. I will however be sure to update this blog post https://livecaboradio.blog/2022/08/29/2022-rainrate-for-cabo-as-we-get-rain/ daily.
So for updates please see the NHC https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?epac
(sorry I didn’t fully check typos/grammar this time)