I will touch on the Atlantic season a bit near the end.
Also, I am keeping a running tab so to speak on this year’s rain rate as we get it in this blog post. https://livecaboradio.blog/2022/08/29/2022-rainrate-for-cabo-as-we-get-rain/
So at the beginning of the season, I usually put out one or two forecast blog posts as the professionals make their predictions.
First, let’s look at what is considered an average season. 15 total named storms, with an average of 8 hurricanes category 1-2, and an average of 4 major hurricanes category 3-5 which leaves us with an average of 3 tropical storms. That’s it. That’s the average, which excludes tropical depressions.
SEMAR predicted a total of 20 storms (they include tropical depressions). 12 Tropical, 5 Hurricanes and 2 Major Hurricanes (and one depression)
NOAA gave a forecast of between this many and that many … seriously? Yes. 10-17 named storms, 4-8 to become hurricanes, 0-3 to become major which leaves us with the rest being tropical storms and that doesn’t work for this blog post so I’m going to work with averaging those numbers out.
I’ve decided NOAA meant to say rounding UP 14 😎 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes, and 6 tropical storms.
ACCUWEATHER did the same. 15-19 named storms, 6-8 hurricanes, 2-4 major hurricanes,
and 6 to 8 tropical storms. Nope. Doesn’t work for me.
I’ve decided ACCUWEATHER meant to say rounding UP 17 😎 named storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes, and 7 tropical storms. It’s my blog … work with me 😁
What we have so far (September 22, 2022)
We have had a total of 7 Tropical Storms, 6 Hurricanes, 2 Major Hurricanes bringing us to a mid’ish season total of 15 named storms.
It’s a bit quiet out there right now while the Atlantic is finally waking up with a bit of a roar, and usually but not always when one ocean is full of energy the other one is sipping on some tea. Our season here in the East Pacific Ocean is not over until November 30th, but let’s do a brief summary on the Atlantic.
The Atlantic Ocean’s hurricane season has an average of 14 named storms, 3 are major hurricanes, 7 are cat 1-2 hurricanes leaving an average of 4 tropical storms.
I only kept track of two forecasts.
SEMAR 21 total named storms, 13 to become tropical storms, 6 to become hurricanes, 2 to become major hurricanes and I guess no depressions. 🤷♀️
NOAA 14-21 named storms, 6-10 to become hurricanes, 3-6 to become major which leaves us with the rest being tropical storms and that doesn’t work for this blog post so I’m going to work with averaging those numbers out.
I’ve decided NOAA meant to say rounding UP 18 😎 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes, and 5 tropical storms.
I know, rounding up like that with using averages from their predictions (forecasts) is a bit unfair but I’M JUST SAYING, it was forecasted that the Atlantic Ocean would have an above-average hurricane season.
Their current totals? 4 tropical storms, 2 hurricanes, and one major hurricane which gives us a total of 7 named storms.
NOTE: Pay attention to Invest 98L as it has a 90% chance of becoming a named storm any time now, and I’m not a fan of long-term models for accuracy (any models, actually) but there is a real potential it will become a Cat 3 or higher if it hits the gulf.
So if you ever wonder why I often use the crystal ball as a featured image for a blog entry, that is why. It’s just … WEIRD, the Atlantic has been so quiet and it is weird we are already at OUR average number of named storms. Maybe someone who more closely follows the Atlantic storm seasons can comment and chime in.