By: Live Cabo Radio
On the last Storm Season Novela – Episode 4, “Something’s Brewing, Baby” — and her name was Dalila.”
To recap our season so far: hurricane season kicked off May 15, 2025, and runs through November 30th. We’ve had four named storms so far, one of which leveled up to a Category 1 hurricane.
And now, the East Pacific holds its breath for almost Hurricane Erick.
When I started this chapter, it was barely almost Tropical Storm Erick, but after breaking news (read: making dinner, a beach walk, random neighborhood chisme, ice cream, and falling asleep), we jumped from Potential Tropical Cyclone Five-E to a named Tropical Storm — and he’s looking to upgrade to Category 2 hurricane status.
Is it too early for this? Nope. Not typical, but not unheard of either.
Remember Tropical Storm Andres on May 9, 2021? Or Hurricane Andres on May 28, 2015? Followed immediately by Hurricane Blanca on May 31, 2015. (Blanca and I still aren’t speaking — she wrecked a sister trip. Long story.)
My point is: it’s not too early, it’s just not the average. Sea temps up here by us are still on the cooler “plunge pool” side, but down south, where storms are born, they’re a cozy 84° to 86°F. That’s more than enough for a storm to throw hands. They only need about 80°F to start spinning.
A little storm trivia:
Odile hit Los Cabos during a neutral ENSO year in 2014. In 2015, we were in El Niño, which superheated the whole basin. Now? 2025’s neutral again — but pockets of warm water mean business.
The season forecast:
On average, we see 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes (Cat 1-2), and 4 major hurricanes (Cat 3+) per season in the East Pacific.
This year:
Semar’s forecast (April 22, 2025) is already up on my blog: “Tropical Storm Averages: Neutral vs. La Niña vs. El Niño.”
NOAA’s May 22nd outlook:
12-18 named storms
5-10 hurricanes
2-5 major hurricanes
Latest on Tropical Storm Erick (as of 6 AM CST)
Erick is currently about 430 miles southeast of Punta Maldonado, Mexico, moving west-northwest at 12 mph with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. He’s expected to slow down a bit and strengthen, likely becoming a hurricane on Wednesday as he approaches the coast.
Watches & Warnings:
Hurricane Watch from Bahias de Huatulco to Punta Maldonado
Tropical Storm Watch east of Bahias de Huatulco to Salina Cruz
A Hurricane Watch means hurricane conditions could be possible within 48 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means tropical storm conditions are possible within 48 hours.
A Hurricane Warning is likely to be issued for parts of the coast later today. Anyone along Mexico’s southern Pacific coast should stay tuned.
Rainfall Forecast:
5 to 10 inches (up to 15 inches in spots) possible across Chiapas, Oaxaca, and Guerrero, and parts of Guatemala.
→ This kind of rain can trigger dangerous flooding and landslides, especially in mountainous areas.
Wind & Surf:
Hurricane-force winds are possible in watch areas by Wednesday night.
Large swells and dangerous rip currents are expected along the coast starting tomorrow.
If you’re in, near, or know someone in Oaxaca, Guerrero, or Chiapas, make sure they’re watching official local updates and starting storm prep if they haven’t already.
I’ve got my serious voice ready for the next chapter if need be. Stay tuned — it’s about to get real for our friends down south. If you have friends and loved ones in that region, let them know you are thinking of them. 