2pm update CAT 3 – Sandra strongest late season hurricane on record

Hurricane Sandra has become the strongest late season hurricane on record for the eastern pacific. Wow. Just WOW! (the previous record was Hurricane Winnie of 1983, which reached an intensity of 80 kt on December 6). The “official” end to hurricane season is November 30th, by the way, but that doesn’t mean late season storms do not happen and well, here we are.

MAJOR Hurricane Sandra is currently 685 miles (1100km) South of the Tip of Baja (#Cabo San Lucas) w/Max sustained winds of 115 mph and wind gusts of 140 mph.  There are currently NO watches are warning in effect for the coastal areas but the National Hurricane Center may issue them tonight or early tomorrow morning.  We are being advised to keep a serious eye on Sandra as even if this system stays offshore we are still expecting very heavy rains and it will still get windy – personal note: we are already securing things at home so we do not have to rush tomorrow just to be on the safe side.  I guess we’ll be dining on our holiday meal tomorrow indoors but that is now the last thing on our mind (I’ll regret that when I get up early to begin baking pies I should’ve started yesterday)

Sandra is strengthening very rapidly as she moves over water that is roughly 84 Fahrenheit!

***Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).
***Although Sandra is forecast to weaken, it is too soon to know
exactly how it will affect portions of the southern Baja California
peninsula or the west coast of mainland Mexico.  Since the forecast
has slowed down a bit, a watch may not be required until tonight or
on Thursday for portions of Mexico.  Regardless, interests in those
areas should continue to monitor the progress of Sandra.


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Hurricane Models
Computer hurricane models that use mathematical equations try and figure out what the weather or in this case a storm, will do next.  Each computer model has its strengths and its weaknesses and they rarely agree 100%.  It helps to see them all in one screen shot.  Using Sandra as an example, notice where the red “L” is? That is the current location of this system.  Each different colored line is a path with time markers each of the 6 most widely used computer models think this system will go and each dot represents a twelve (12) hour period).  These computer models will change their “minds” several times a day every day

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Cones of Concern
Anywhere that is shaded all white is where the center of this system could end up in the next 3 days and potential days 4 and 5 are semi shaded. As you can see, they really cover themselves on where this system might end up! Many people breath in a sigh of relief when they see that Cabo is not in the “Cone of Conern” or in the center of it but that doesn’t mean we won’t get some wind and rain, it just means that the professionals do not think they eye (center) of the storm will pass over us.

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We recently talked about wind speeds here: https://wordpress.com/post/livecaboradio.wordpress.com/53

For more info please visit these sites:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep2+shtml/143654.shtml?5-daynl#contents

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/

… and to keep track of rainfall estimations and wind forecasts for your area (you might want to switch to the descriptive tab): http://www.wunderground.com/q/zmw:00000.6.WMMSD?

Have I forgotten anything? Besides that plastic patio furniture starts to move at around 30 mph?

Yes … an image of Sandra

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~ Jenn

 

*** quotes from NHC

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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