WTPZ31 KNHC 071842
TROPICAL STORM JAVIER INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A…CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112016
100 PM CDT SUN AUG 07 2016
…JAVIER PRODUCING STRONG WINDS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST
COAST OF MEXICO…
CORRECTED HEADER LINE TO TROPICAL STORM JAVIER
SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT…1800 UTC…INFORMATION
ABOUT 110 MI…175 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH…75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1000 MB…29.53 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Southern portion of the Baja California peninsula from La Paz
southward and westward to Santa Fe, including Cabo San Lucas
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Javier was
located near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 106.2 West. Javier is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn
toward the northwest is expected later today, and this motion is
expected to continue through Monday. On the forecast track, the
center of the tropical cyclone should pass offshore of the southwest
coast of Mexico today, and approach the southern portion of the Baja
California peninsula on Monday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or so.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
RAINFALL: Javier is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
4 to 8 inches over western or coastal parts of the Mexican states of
Colima, Jalisco, Michoacan, Nayarit and the southern part of Baja
California Sur with possible isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches
through Tuesday morning.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions
of the southwest coast of Mexico in the warning area, and should
continue for the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions are
possible over the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula
within the watch area by late Monday.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.
Forecaster Pasch http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPEP1+shtml/071842.shtml?
~end update 1pm cabo time
Now it’s time to pay real attention! Thankfully, the initial scare of very very very heavy rains has changed from the reported 6 inches to waaaaay less. It’ll still be a PIA for many locals, however. I’m pre- coffee so this will just be a graphics blog this morning.
Over the last year or so, we’ve already gone over what all of the graphics mean. Quick recap, if “we” are inside the circles, that any where inside of the circles, is where the center of the storm may end up. Even if we are not in the circles, we will still be impacted by some wind and rain but the wind will be less and the rain is anyone’s guess.
Coffee time. Then need to get ready. I have adult kids to get the the airport. It’s time to return home 😞 I made the call as a parent to change their flights from Tuesday to today (couldn’t get a flight for Monday) because my car can’t drive through large puddles and they can’t miss work if they miss their flight.
So if you,are like me and can’t drive in even a little rain, get what you need today then relax. Hopefully it’s stays just as currently predicted. 😊